MMR Algo - Questions

  • Hi all,

    I'm a master's student in computer science so I am naturally curious about the algo (rating system) used to compute our MMR used by SBMM in the game.

    THE FORMULA

    I've heard SoT uses a pseudo-elo rating system based on W/L ratio.
    I would love to know the exact formula if possible. For example, does it look something like:

    Standard Elo System: win probability estimation
    player 1 rating : R1
    player 2 rating : R2
    player 1's win probability : p = 1 / [1 + 10 ^ [(R_2 - R_1)/400] ]

    Standard Elo System: rating update formula
    change in R : dR
    constant scalar controlling how fast ratings change : k
    how ratings get updated : dR = k * (S - E)
    where S is actual score (1 win, 0 loss) and E is expected score (prob of win)

    Question : how does the W/L-based system work exactly?
    Would it be possible to get the formulas?
    If it's purely based on W/L it means we get an equal boost in MMR from sinking a noob vs a pro.
    It also does not take into account large win streaks which does not match my recent personal experience.
    More on this below...

    MOMENTUM AND OVERSHOOTING?

    This Tuesday during fight night, me and my friend had a crazy win streak of like 7 to 10 wins in a row which never happens to us. We are both level 50~78 in servants of the flames.

    I am wondering if the algo of the rating system massively overshoots when we get win streaks (some kind of momentum term in the formula?) Because since that win streak on Tue, we have not been able to win a single game in hourglass. We are now on a roughly 20 loss streak.

    LOSS FARMING

    I was getting so demoralized I considered uninstalling the game. But instead I am loss farming, hoping to bring back my MMR to its realistic level. I consider loss farming to be dishonorable but I am desperate to fix my matchmaking at this point.

    With that in mind, I refuse to grind XP towards the skeleton curse since I want to deserve it when I own it. So, I am loss farming under the Guardians of Fortune which has the added benefit of protecting my W/L ratio in the stats under the Servant tab. However, I am curious to know if the ratings are calculated per-account or per-faction (?)

    In your experience, does loss farming help regularize the SBMM?
    How much of it is usually needed to get back to a normal level after the MMR overshooting from a lucky win streak?

    Thanks,

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  • Unlikely they will release the exact way this is calculated as, you can imagine, people will try to game it, in the same way you are suggesting loss farming.

    Just FYI Microsoft basically nailed the SBMM with Halo and it’s highly likely a modded version exists for SoT.

    Given that you’re still under 100 it’s likely you have more elastic rating / uncertainty than someone who is close to gold bones/ghost and so loss farming should in theory work.

    However, I am fairly certain that there is technology in place to flag this behavior and pause rank adjustments until a more normal pattern resumes.

  • I was getting so demoralized I considered uninstalling the game.

    Why...because of 1 single tiny part of the game? I never understand this, uninstalling a full game because of 1 part.

    I consider loss farming to be dishonorable

    But the person winning the free EXP and increasing their own wins doesn't see it that way. Thanks to these people, during double exp, I went up a lot faster in just an hour than I would normally. If these pirates wanna lose, just to earn half exp to unlock a Curse, so they can quit HQ. LET THEM.

    I refuse to grind XP towards the skeleton curse since I want to deserve it when I own it.

    Much like the rest of the players in this game. They refuse to grind anything because it takes too long, is stressful, has hardships, don't have the time. So the argument over dishonor when loss farming is moot.

    In your experience, does loss farming help regularize the SBMM?

    It helps do the thing you know it's going to do.
    Will you meet people your level? No. Will you earn exp faster? Yes. By the time everything settles, nobody is equal to you in W/L, and the game just wants you to find a PvP partner.

    That is Hourglass's only goal. Find yourself a PvP partner to fight, regardless of skill/wins/losses. Nobody cared about that without Hourglass back then (just attack each other), so why add that as a function now?

    If they removed the curses. How will Hourglass look and feel?

  • @economic-unit more people play during fight nights and double XP nights so you got matched with people that are your actual MMR or could of been just starting that got matched against you due to them unable to find someone in their MMR. That's why you had more streaks during fight nights.

    So for saying you haven't won much since fight nights is over yeah that is normal now. HG has been out for years and if you aren't at high levels you're kinda behind and are going to be just matched against anyone not your MMR due to it is hard finding people those levels. That is why you aren't winning the same as you did on Tuesday. You are getting matched against us daily HG players that are high leveled. This is why a lot of players only play during double XP to try to get their curses. They don't want to play against high leveled players or stuck underwater just searching for an opponent. So you either need to just keep fighting who you get matched against and learn from the high leveled experienced players to get better and stand a chance at winning or play only during double xp events unfortunately. This has been a common topic. Im not sure what would be better if they stop matching people all together if they can't find someone in your MMR and let you sit underwater waiting on a match which may take hours or never show up and you totally miss out on any fights and even the loss rep or keep it the way it is and just finally match you with the next available match. I would rather take the next available match and get the rep if I was just starting out again at least it's something.

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