How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...

Good info. This tracks with most of what I have thought for years. I estimated 10k hours per shrouded, which obviously is not a guarantee regardless.

Killing 5 is a ridiculous commendation that was either poorly thought out with little understanding of how probability works or intentionally meant to never be completed.

This post proves how wildly unfair this commendation is to neurodivergent completionists, because what’s being presented here isn’t a “rare challenge,” it’s a mathematically unfinishable task for a huge chunk of the playerbase. For a lot of autistic, ADHD, or OCD players, completionism isn’t optional flavor content — it’s how we engage with the game — and dangling a commendation that statistically demands 10,000–50,000 hours with zero skill expression, zero agency, and no upper bound isn’t prestige, it’s exclusion by RNG. Effort doesn’t matter, knowledge doesn’t matter, dedication doesn’t matter — you can do everything “right” and still be locked out forever, which is exactly the kind of infinite unresolved goal that causes fixation, burnout, and frustration. Comparing this to shiny Pokémon only makes it worse: those rolls take seconds, not two hours per attempt. “Having a chance” after thousands of kills is not good design, and requiring five Shrouded Ghosts crosses the line from rare into absurd. If a commendation can realistically never be completed by dedicated players who love your game, then it’s not a challenge — it’s a design failure hiding behind statistics.

So basically when u started a session u got a small chance to get a meg on day 1 and the average megalodon timer is day 5 and 6

False. I’ve had a Meg spawn on me two islands away from outpost. First 5min of game

@burnbacon said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

So basically when u started a session u got a small chance to get a meg on day 1 and the average megalodon timer is day 5 and 6

False. I’ve had a Meg spawn on me two islands away from outpost. First 5min of game

Did you read what he typed before responding? He said you have a SMALL CHANCE on day 1. Just because it happened to you within 5 minutes of loading in ONCE does not disprove what he said. What are you even talking about? Why have the mods allowed you to say this kind of stuff for years unchecked? WHY?

@burnbacon

U can have a meg on day 1 just after leaving on outpost , but the odds are pretty low... Didn't get a single meg on day 1 this year.

But i can compare it with my 2025 data xD

DAY Count MEG DAY % % CHANCE TO HAVE A MEG

Day 1 25 2,81% 2,81%
Day 2 51 5,72% 8,53%
Day 3 94 10,55% 19,08%
Day 4 232 26,04% 45,12%
Day 5 288 32,32% 77,44%
Day 6 115 12,91% 90,35%
Day 7 48 5,39% 95,74%
Day 8 30 3,37% 99,10%
Day 9 8 0,90% 100,00%

Statiscally i get lower chance in 2026 than in 2025 to get an early megalodon (day 1, 2) but it's still possible.
Btw the meg timer where 'better' in 2025 than 2026

Just A Goat commendation.

But more seriously out of all this what really is the hardest part is the not knowing truth for certain.

If it is a pure lottery full RNG, at least having this acknowledgment from Rare would be a win.

Having a few mechanics allowing to increase your lottery odds would be a second win.

Having an honest and transparent communication workshop with Rare on this overall 5 total feasibility would be the final cherry 🍒 win.

But in the end out of all this the Shrouded “myth is still running after over 7years and has drove multiple pirates on the seas (which are human beings behind) go completely crazy and wasting a whole lot of their time just because of an unrealistic gameplay loop which is at a border line limit of players’ time investment respect and ethics.

@burnbacon said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

So basically when u started a session u got a small chance to get a meg on day 1 and the average megalodon timer is day 5 and 6

False. I’ve had a Meg spawn on me two islands away from outpost. First 5min of game

@BurnBacon its literally what was said. Did you even read or you are just trolling out of boredom?

@serdudekiller said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

On the meg/day percentage and your conclusion that day 5/6 is most likely to get a spawn:

This doesn't take into account your sampling method. For instance, you conclude that day passage is a factor into a spawn becoming more likely (with a fall-off after day 5), but what if the reason the distribution is this way is because you mostly have 2 hour sessions? We can see that you killed 10 megs out of your 154 on day 9, but how many day 9s have you reached vs day 5s?

The distribution would make it more certain that day passage is a factor for the spawns if you consistently ran 9-day sessions and recorded the data, otherwise the distribution feels a little random.

Also:

u could get it on your 1st roll or maybe after 5000.

You missed an opportunity to plug in the fact that you got 4 Shrouded Ghosts somewhere in between your 5000 rolls 😌

He’s playing specifically for megs most of the time and not leaving a server until seeing a meg.

The spawns are clearly weighted towards day 5 or more likely just an amount of time passed since logging in or the previous spawn. Lukitch is one of if not the most notorious meg hunter(s) on the seas. His data is good.

You don’t need to play 9 day sessions over and over to see when your first meg spawns.

@serdudekiller

It seems that the maximum timer is day 9.
So basically when u lauch a session the server determine a timer it can be day 1 , day 3, day 4 or day 9 ...

most of time you'll get the average timer (between day 5/6) which is like 2h of session .

But sometimes your timer can be reset (Server merge , Scuttle change sea , and sometimes if u dive too much)
I can't affirm that the timer can be reset if u sunk (cause my game play avoid any conflits) , cause i'm just afk on edge of map waiting for megs.

And most of time after getting and killing my meg , i'm doing a new server
Most of time if i stay on the same server , i'll get a longer meg timer (1st meg killed day 5 / 2nd meg can be day 7 ) so it's better to do a new session cause u gain some precious minutes.

@shadowfox327533

You should get a guarantee meg on day 9 but they are some factors which can increase (Server merge : I can't affirm it , but when i'm doing afk during nights i get 2 or 3 server merge and my meg is delayed) most of my Day 9 megs are due to it)
And a soon you kill your megs , a new timer will be set.

Exemple :

1st meg killed on day 5, if you stay on the server you can have a new meg on day 6 (Odds are pretty low) , or it can be day 13 (5+9 new timer) ...
But most of time after killing a meg on day 5 your next meg should be day 10/11

Basically , it's Original meg timer + New meg timer = Day1to9 + Day 1 +9 etc...

After killing my meg , I'm switching server (new ship + new server) cause my 1st timer is lower than the 2nd one ...
So i can gain some precious minutes....

If it use more stats , it's better to launch a new ship after day 6 if u don't have your meg ... (but only if you aim is getting more megs)

Waiting until Day 6:
+15.2% probability gain
Acceptable time cost

Waiting beyond Day 6:
5% gain per day

Strong diminishing returns
Waiting until Day 7–9 is not efficient