For those of you who managed to stick around this long and played the game in the last couple of weeks, you probably came across the server-swapping message informing you that the World is Changing. What this means is that the game has detected a complete absence of anyone in your area and has shifted you to another, more populated server. This is an undeniable sign that players are leaving this game as I've not encountered this once during the first 2 months after release. But now, it is not uncommon to sail for a good 30 minutes without seeing a single sail on the horizon.
So what went wrong? (other than Hungering Deep, of course) Well, simply put, the developers have failed to create an entertaining end game, and those patient enough to grind to the legendary status have no further motivation to play. This came to be because they tried to make this game both PVE and PVP simultaneously, but have failed to capture the lasting allure of either. I'll try to explain both aspects below.
PVE
Single-player and multiplayer PVE games tend to make the experience last because they generally rely on a variety of quests, levelling, items, involved and difficult gameplay, or a captivating story to keep you playing. One can argue that SoT presently does not really have any of those elements. While I understand that the developers wanted to steer clear of offering metagame advantages through more powerful items or levels (a decision I strongly support), there are other ways to offer longevity. The shortage of quests and their limited involvement is noticeable after only a few hours of play. There can be way more things that players could be doing such as whale harpooning, raiding heavily defended forts, fishing, etc. Rare is presently making an assumption that simply adding more items for people to grind towards is appropriate. I'm sure there will be next set of Athena-type levels and treasures, requiring an even greater repetition of tedious tasks, but that is a very lazy way to artificially add gameplay. For ideas on what made great pirate games, one need simply look at the original Pirates, Sea Dogs, and Age of Pirates (all of which carry the same format).
The Hungering Deep was an awful idea as a means to expand gameplay, because it simply doesn't. It could pass as a seasonal gimmick, but that's about it, and definitely not something that should be advertised as an "update". They have essentially offered a single quest, which could perhaps be ok if this was a single player RPG. But, for an online sandbox game, every update must include lasting gameplay features, not something you do once and never engage in again. And why would you? If they released a monster-hunting set of quests, then sure, but once you unlock everything, repetition carries no incentive. And those ludicrous community challenges such as "sitting on an explosive barrel next to 10 of each animal, playing a song drunk while the megalodon is dying behind you" are a desperate way to try and milk this already dead mega-long-d**g.
If Rare really wanted to bring crews together, I can suggest what could have been (and still can be) done instead - a random, server-wide, repeating event where an armada of AI ships enters the map, carrying loads of treasure from one side of the map to the other, giving players a limited window in which they can engage them and steal the loot. Since the fleet would have considerable ships and be next to impossible to engage solo, crews from across the map would have to join forces to try take them on, often failing in the attempt. Obviously, sharing the loot afterwards would be yet another interesting scenario, but that's part of the fun, with everyone turning on one another and scrambling to get at least some of the floating treasure.
To be fair, no matter how good, PVE games don't really have an engaging end game mechanic - the games with the longest life spans are predominantly PVP, as they allow the player to have fun from a repeatable yet always different engagement involving other human beings.
PVP
What makes any successful PVP game maintain momentum? Though SoT, indeed, does have the necessary fun PVP mechanic and gameplay, it lacks a core element - purpose. Other than looting and trolling there is really no satisfaction to be gained by engaging in PVP. PVP gamers want to be acknowledged for their skill, and that is remarkably easy to fix. There are two very simple ways to make the PVP a lot more enticing.
The first is a bounty system. Players who kill other players should be accumulating a bounty based on how many players they kill and ships they sink before dying. Once they are killed by another player, that bounty is paid to their killer and reset, starting again. This bounty would carry over and accumulate between sessions and servers and remain with the player until dead. The better you are at PVP and the longer you last, the higher the bounty on your head will be, rising at an increasing rate with each kill. This is perfectly consistent with the nature of the game since being hunted is the default state of all pirates. This feature could be supplemented with a few minor tweaks to the game to accommodate and promote it, such as seeing the bounty of a player by viewing them with the spyglass, and by talking to the barkeep to let you know who the most wanted players are on the server and what island they were last seen at. Finally, having a separate faction branch called "Bounty Hunters" could complete the experience by also offering the traditional progression approach with players gaining XP with each bounty collected. If the developer are adamant on having an item that you have to hand in for your reward, they can easily make a slain pirate drop some kind of token which can submitted for their bounty and XP.
The second is a leader board system which ties perfectly with the first. That will allow people to see how well they compare to other pirates . The primary board would be the bounty scale which shows how many kills and sunk ships the presently alive top pirates have accumulated. The key here is that the rating is only valid until you die, and is reset afterwards, as that is how the bounty should work. Having the board and bounty based on overall stats would rewards those who play the most instead of those who are the best. Secondary boards could include other, career-based stats, which do not contribute to the bounty.
If the game is about being a notorious pirate, these two implementations would actually allow players to be recognized for their deeds (rather misdeeds) by other players. So if you see a player with a massive bounty on their head, you can gauge your odds and the rewards should you try to go after them. With these features, you could gain money and XP through PVP, and also gain a reputation which others could see. Simply put, you could actually come across a pirate you have heard of, which is what infamy is supposed to be about.
Just to clarify, I am writing this not because I want to bash the game - I enjoyed playing it these last two months, but that feeling is vanishing quickly, and I would absolutely love it if this game was more than it currently is. I believe this is a great premise for a game which we have not seen before, but it is sadly underdeveloped and going to waste. As you sail the seas and are tragically moved to a different server due to absence of players, remember that the world IS, indeed, changing, but into one where people will soon completely give up on this game. Save it, please!
