Hi.
There is 1000 posts about Merchant Forager / Shipwright / Cast Iron / Black Powder commendations on this forum, but here is a new one since necro-posting is forbidden.
I spent 40 hours grinding bottles to prove a point, here are screens and exact data of my findings:
[mod removed - I don't have epilepsy but good grief, could that trigger it if I did]
Here are the results out of 200 bottles since the video has been removed by mod:
Merchant Contract 25/200 (12,5%)
Breath of the Sea 37/200 (18,5%)
Smuggler Run 49/200 (24,5%)
Riddle 9/200 (4,5%)
Treasure Map 25/200 (12,5%)
Skeleton Captains 28/200 (14%)
Skeleton Lord 8/200 (4%)
Deliver Canonballs 3/200 (1,5%)
Deliver Fruits 1/200 (0,5%)
Deliver Keg 3/200 (1,5%)
Deliver Wood 1/200 (0,5%)
As everyone know here, the commendation cited earlier are pretty much undoable.
When grinding 40 hours straight for bottles, and only bottles, I had, in TOTAL, 1 to 3 of each type of delivery voyage.
Notes and Details
- Farmed those bottles mostly in floating debris while doing miles for a stupid commendation (excuse the word, I cannot find any other noun for it).
- Idk why, when you sail for a certain time on a given server (about 30 min), floating debris become a LOT more common (one pool every one or two minutes).
- I farmed those bottles during four ~10h sessions (mostly mindlessly sailing around the map to get the 1000 miles commendation, which netted me around 300 miles). These screenshots are from these ~40 hours of miles/bottles grind.
- Smugglers' Wrecks always have a Smugglers' Run voyage inside. Regular wrecks do not (they only have a random voyage maybe 50% of the time).
- As many know, you can tell a bottle is a Heart of the Sea because of its blue shine color. There is no way to differentiate Smuggler Voyages from regular voyages from a distance.
I think these merchant voyages have as much chances to spawn than the Skeleton Lord and Riddle voyages (already the rarest ones), but it is then sub-divided by 4 (canonballs / wood / fruits / keg).
This issue has been preventing people from doing this commendation for 2 to 4 years, I don't remember exactly. The easy fix would be to multiply by 3 or 4 the chances to get voyages from standard green bottles (at least).
Conclusion and Result Analysis
I expect a normal player to get bottles at least 2 time slower than I did (since I actively farmed them), so around 80h of gameplay to get 200 bottles, for about 2 voyages on average.
The commendation asks for 50 (for each of those voyages), so this is approximatively a 2000h (50/2 * 80) of in game time normal gameplay to finish those "simple" commendations in the current state of the game, assuming a player does every single of those voyage he comes across. However, I have 2500 hours and I have less than 20 of each, so I guess my calculations are very generous (truth is, most player get 2 or 3 bottles per session at most).
