How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...

Good info. This tracks with most of what I have thought for years. I estimated 10k hours per shrouded, which obviously is not a guarantee regardless.

Killing 5 is a ridiculous commendation that was either poorly thought out with little understanding of how probability works or intentionally meant to never be completed.

This post proves how wildly unfair this commendation is to neurodivergent completionists, because what’s being presented here isn’t a “rare challenge,” it’s a mathematically unfinishable task for a huge chunk of the playerbase. For a lot of autistic, ADHD, or OCD players, completionism isn’t optional flavor content — it’s how we engage with the game — and dangling a commendation that statistically demands 10,000–50,000 hours with zero skill expression, zero agency, and no upper bound isn’t prestige, it’s exclusion by RNG. Effort doesn’t matter, knowledge doesn’t matter, dedication doesn’t matter — you can do everything “right” and still be locked out forever, which is exactly the kind of infinite unresolved goal that causes fixation, burnout, and frustration. Comparing this to shiny Pokémon only makes it worse: those rolls take seconds, not two hours per attempt. “Having a chance” after thousands of kills is not good design, and requiring five Shrouded Ghosts crosses the line from rare into absurd. If a commendation can realistically never be completed by dedicated players who love your game, then it’s not a challenge — it’s a design failure hiding behind statistics.

So basically when u started a session u got a small chance to get a meg on day 1 and the average megalodon timer is day 5 and 6

False. I’ve had a Meg spawn on me two islands away from outpost. First 5min of game

@burnbacon said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

So basically when u started a session u got a small chance to get a meg on day 1 and the average megalodon timer is day 5 and 6

False. I’ve had a Meg spawn on me two islands away from outpost. First 5min of game

Did you read what he typed before responding? He said you have a SMALL CHANCE on day 1. Just because it happened to you within 5 minutes of loading in ONCE does not disprove what he said. What are you even talking about? Why have the mods allowed you to say this kind of stuff for years unchecked? WHY?

@burnbacon

U can have a meg on day 1 just after leaving on outpost , but the odds are pretty low... Didn't get a single meg on day 1 this year.

But i can compare it with my 2025 data xD

DAY Count MEG DAY % % CHANCE TO HAVE A MEG

Day 1 25 2,81% 2,81%
Day 2 51 5,72% 8,53%
Day 3 94 10,55% 19,08%
Day 4 232 26,04% 45,12%
Day 5 288 32,32% 77,44%
Day 6 115 12,91% 90,35%
Day 7 48 5,39% 95,74%
Day 8 30 3,37% 99,10%
Day 9 8 0,90% 100,00%

Statiscally i get lower chance in 2026 than in 2025 to get an early megalodon (day 1, 2) but it's still possible.
Btw the meg timer where 'better' in 2025 than 2026

Just A Goat commendation.

But more seriously out of all this what really is the hardest part is the not knowing truth for certain.

If it is a pure lottery full RNG, at least having this acknowledgment from Rare would be a win.

Having a few mechanics allowing to increase your lottery odds would be a second win.

Having an honest and transparent communication workshop with Rare on this overall 5 total feasibility would be the final cherry 🍒 win.

But in the end out of all this the Shrouded “myth is still running after over 7years and has drove multiple pirates on the seas (which are human beings behind) go completely crazy and wasting a whole lot of their time just because of an unrealistic gameplay loop which is at a border line limit of players’ time investment respect and ethics.

@burnbacon said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

So basically when u started a session u got a small chance to get a meg on day 1 and the average megalodon timer is day 5 and 6

False. I’ve had a Meg spawn on me two islands away from outpost. First 5min of game

@BurnBacon its literally what was said. Did you even read or you are just trolling out of boredom?

@serdudekiller said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

On the meg/day percentage and your conclusion that day 5/6 is most likely to get a spawn:

This doesn't take into account your sampling method. For instance, you conclude that day passage is a factor into a spawn becoming more likely (with a fall-off after day 5), but what if the reason the distribution is this way is because you mostly have 2 hour sessions? We can see that you killed 10 megs out of your 154 on day 9, but how many day 9s have you reached vs day 5s?

The distribution would make it more certain that day passage is a factor for the spawns if you consistently ran 9-day sessions and recorded the data, otherwise the distribution feels a little random.

Also:

u could get it on your 1st roll or maybe after 5000.

You missed an opportunity to plug in the fact that you got 4 Shrouded Ghosts somewhere in between your 5000 rolls 😌

He’s playing specifically for megs most of the time and not leaving a server until seeing a meg.

The spawns are clearly weighted towards day 5 or more likely just an amount of time passed since logging in or the previous spawn. Lukitch is one of if not the most notorious meg hunter(s) on the seas. His data is good.

You don’t need to play 9 day sessions over and over to see when your first meg spawns.

@serdudekiller

It seems that the maximum timer is day 9.
So basically when u lauch a session the server determine a timer it can be day 1 , day 3, day 4 or day 9 ...

most of time you'll get the average timer (between day 5/6) which is like 2h of session .

But sometimes your timer can be reset (Server merge , Scuttle change sea , and sometimes if u dive too much)
I can't affirm that the timer can be reset if u sunk (cause my game play avoid any conflits) , cause i'm just afk on edge of map waiting for megs.

And most of time after getting and killing my meg , i'm doing a new server
Most of time if i stay on the same server , i'll get a longer meg timer (1st meg killed day 5 / 2nd meg can be day 7 ) so it's better to do a new session cause u gain some precious minutes.

@shadowfox327533

You should get a guarantee meg on day 9 but they are some factors which can increase (Server merge : I can't affirm it , but when i'm doing afk during nights i get 2 or 3 server merge and my meg is delayed) most of my Day 9 megs are due to it)
And a soon you kill your megs , a new timer will be set.

Exemple :

1st meg killed on day 5, if you stay on the server you can have a new meg on day 6 (Odds are pretty low) , or it can be day 13 (5+9 new timer) ...
But most of time after killing a meg on day 5 your next meg should be day 10/11

Basically , it's Original meg timer + New meg timer = Day1to9 + Day 1 +9 etc...

After killing my meg , I'm switching server (new ship + new server) cause my 1st timer is lower than the 2nd one ...
So i can gain some precious minutes....

If it use more stats , it's better to launch a new ship after day 6 if u don't have your meg ... (but only if you aim is getting more megs)

Waiting until Day 6:
+15.2% probability gain
Acceptable time cost

Waiting beyond Day 6:
5% gain per day

Strong diminishing returns
Waiting until Day 7–9 is not efficient

@burnbacon I would try comprehending what was written. The important part of language is to actually read it, and understand. You should try it before trying to engage. A bit of practice goes a long way

@look-behind-you said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

Th problem with personal or anecdotal 'stats' is that they ignore every other person's anecdotal 'stats'.

Anyone could easily start a new Sea of Thieves journey and manage to meet/defeat a Shrouded Ghost within 15 mins, which would destroy all 'stats' mentioned.

On the inverse, someone could play for 8 years and 1000's of hours and never even see, let alone defeat a Shrouded Ghost.

Almost as if it is actually a (at best) "guess" rather than actual "Stats".

The numbers may be correct for you but...ignores...EVERY other player's experience ever.

While it is luck and RNG, the 1/5000 spawn rate is a real thing.

I have over 25k hours and have killed thousands of megs and still have never seen the Shrouded Ghost even once. So these stats do reflect what most people feel when it comes to megs, and lukitch has a ton of data to support all this.

Needing to kill 5 is not only insane, it is safe to say it is literally impossible for even the most hardcore of players

@look-behind-you

I ve done some 'Community statistics 2 years ago' , the Data are quite the same for a Megalodon spawn (the average timer is way higher in 2026 than 2024 or 2026) , you need to play at least 30 min more to get a single megalodon.

The odds to get the Shrouded ghost is the same for everyone...

You could get a Shrouded ghost as your 1st meg on your 1st minute played on SOT (but ODDS are too low for that) Or you couldn't meet on even with 20k hours played , due to statistics and how your gameplay is. (I can proove you that i can play 8-10h straight withtout getting any megalodons)

The main trouble is How the game mechanic on megalodons works ... only a timer
And you haven't got anything to decrease this timer or A way to farm megalodon (HC quest won't give you a shrouded).

Only Natural spawn can do it , So if you are lucky you could get one pretty quickly less than 50 megs killed but you need to kill 4 more of them.
Try a Random generator (ex : random.org) from 1 to 5000 and try to pick a random number as 3613... Tell me How many tries you need to get 3613
Then do the same 4 time more...

Getting 5 shrouded ghost becomes impossible for most of players... So why we got this kind of commendations ?

Let's speculate , Only to keep players on seas ?
Is it normal that after 7 years (soon 8) no one get 5 of them ?

Do u know why Shrouded ghost were nerfed from 50 to 5 ? Cause i know the reason , and it's funny how they pick this random number... Thanks Spammals ...

Having loot don't change anything ( I can see it when i'm doing open crew) i'm not doing everytime a full afk for meg.

And Shores of gold theory is a pure lie , cause people didn't understood how megs works...

Next time you got a meg , check the day you got it (using the loogbook)

@look-behind-you said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

Th problem with personal or anecdotal 'stats' is that they ignore every other person's anecdotal 'stats'.

Anyone could easily start a new Sea of Thieves journey and manage to meet/defeat a Shrouded Ghost within 15 mins, which would destroy all 'stats' mentioned.

On the inverse, someone could play for 8 years and 1000's of hours and never even see, let alone defeat a Shrouded Ghost.

Almost as if it is actually a (at best) "guess" rather than actual "Stats".

The numbers may be correct for you but...ignores...EVERY other player's experience ever.

His data is good.

One player seeing a shrouded ghost within the first 15 minutes of their account being made does absolutely nothing at all to alter how his data is interpreted nor does it change the accuracy of the data. It's so incredibly consistent over such a large amount of spawns at this point that you are either intentionally misleading the other people in the thread for weird reasons or you are commenting out of your depth on the subject and just plainly ignoring the data.

As someone who used to be obsessed with megs it's pretty obvious to see that the spawn times are weighted towards a specific time, Day 5 as he puts it, and that each meg type also has a certain spawn percentage.

Not to mention, and I won't go into detail for obvious reasons, people have straight up leaked extremely specific info on publicly available social media accounts re: meg spawns further confirming years of suspicion and data collection.

I'll go ahead and assume your post is genuine and you're not trying to gaslight. Why are you arguing with someone who has literal thousands of hours chasing megs? Why are you arguing with one of your customers over ANYTHING in the first place when he was nothing but respectful and spitting straight stats, WHICH ARE ACCURATE BY THE WAY.

Further, and here are some more stats for you.

I have data from 26 players that completed all commendations the game had to offer through the end of season 6. They collectively shared 117,093 hours played. They had 10 shroudeds among them. That comes out to 11,709 hours per shrouded which is pretty close to what he said. 117,093 hours played is a pretty healthy sample size, lol. I don't know how anyone could argue against that.

Hourglass has made such tracking pretty much impossible at this point but that's all the confirmation I ever needed.

Shrouded grade 5 was never meant to be completed or the people who put it in didn't have a full appreciation for the numbers, and still might not. It would take the average person 50,000 hours of their life to see 5 shroudeds. Of course some people will get lucky, and some extremely unlucky, but that's beyond absolutely ridiculous. Most people play most games for less than 100 hours and you guys want people to sink 50k hours into your game specifically while also ignoring hourglass. Haha.

@look-behind-you said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

@swabbie-john said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

@look-behind-you said in How Megalodons and Shrouded ghost works...:

Th problem with personal or anecdotal 'stats' is that they ignore every other person's anecdotal 'stats'.

Anyone could easily start a new Sea of Thieves journey and manage to meet/defeat a Shrouded Ghost within 15 mins, which would destroy all 'stats' mentioned.

On the inverse, someone could play for 8 years and 1000's of hours and never even see, let alone defeat a Shrouded Ghost.

Almost as if it is actually a (at best) "guess" rather than actual "Stats".

The numbers may be correct for you but...ignores...EVERY other player's experience ever.

His data is good.

From their personal experience, I'm sure it is!

Not to mention, and I won't go into detail for obvious reasons, people have straight up leaked extremely specific info on publicly available social media accounts re: meg spawns further confirming years of suspicion and data collection.

If there was a way to predict, guarantee or otherwise influence the spawning of a Shrouded Ghost, it would have been for sale on eBay for silly money....and more than one someone would have defeated 5 by now!

I'll go ahead and assume your post is genuine and you're not trying to gaslight. Why are you arguing with someone who has literal thousands of hours chasing megs? Why are you arguing with one of your customers over ANYTHING in the first place when he was nothing but respectful and spitting straight stats, WHICH ARE ACCURATE BY THE WAY.

As I don't work for Rare, no one is my 'customer'.

Once again, I am sure from their personal lens, their data is accurate...for them, but it also ignores every other person that plays/played/will play Sea of Thieves' own personal stats.

You could roll a normal dice a million times and never once throw a 6....or you could throw a million 6's in a row.....improbable? absolutely! Impossible? No!

The only official stats I have ever seen come from Forum competitions:

How many Megalodons defeated? (in a specified 24hr period)

and How many Shrouded Ghost Megs Killed? (again within a specified 24hr period)

I imagine the actual numbers have shifted over the years due to player count/players and ships per server/interest and many other factors but they are ACTUAL game stats.

You are a moderator. You are a deckhand. Ok, so you don't get paid. You still represent Rare. I gave you data from 117,000 hours worth of play time. I edited it in after you might have started responding, I don't know. But I assure you I'm not making it up and it almost perfectly aligns with what he said.

What you are saying is just based on feelings and nothing more. The data doesn't lie.

and I won't go into detail for obvious reasons, people have straight up leaked extremely specific info on publicly available social media accounts re: meg spawns further confirming years of suspicion and data collection.

Hence, not true.

Why are you arguing with someone who has literal thousands of hours chasing megs?

This means, what actually? You chase megs, spend more time chasing a random encounter.

spitting straight stats, WHICH ARE ACCURATE BY THE WAY.

"accurate" Nothing is accurate in shuffling a deck of cards. If they can't share where this 'secret' stat is given, its not true and just trying to start something with Rare. Prove some point that isnt true.

A true statistic specialist would take into account all information on the matter. You dont just claim "yours" is true, and ignore someone else's. Proper research, you learn this in school.

Day 1 0%

As many I've spoken with, read player posts. This isnt true.
Ive encountered Megs right off the Outpost, Krakens too. Even a a skeleton ship spawn up right after dropping sails.

Game is pure Luck, Unluck and random.