I have seen and heard a lot of talk about how Sea of Thieves could possibly be getting sunsetted or that Microsoft might "pull the plug."
And while there is no dispute that the game's player base is not in a good spot right now, I don't think that is going to happen.
Here's why:
First off, I explained what I think would make a good Sea of Thieves 2 in a previous forum post, but didn't explain why I think that is even happening. So I wanted to give what evidence I found that could support the idea of a Sea of Thieves 2. Or some kind of reboot. Everything listed here is based on previous timelines, public statements, patterns, interviews, recent development decisions, etc., and of course speculation.
Rare Ltd's current contract with Microsoft began in 2017 and was stated to be structured as a 10-year plan/agreement. That would explain why Rare won't just drop Xbox One support, even though doing so would do wonders for the game's health. They know that. Their engineers know that. But they are most likely obligated to keep the current version playable on that hardware for the duration of that contract.
In previous Developer Updates, and the last Community Direct, it was confirmed by Drew that the teams had undergone a restructuring. He also explained which teams do which for the current build. I imagine he left out a few too. Now this restructuring could have been partly due to the cancellation of Everwild, but also to maybe go full speed ahead on a sequel for Sea of Thieves. It’s reasonable to speculate that this restructuring allowed a large portion of their 200+ staff to move onto a new large-scale project, while smaller teams maintain and do the bare minimum for the current version of Sea of Thieves.
That would help explain the much slower pace of content in recent years. And given Rare’s long history and experienced staff, it’s hard to believe that their entire workforce is focused only on the current game.
Several partner studios are also contributing to Sea of Thieves development. Including Auroch, Lucid Games, Flix Interactive, and Sprung Studios. All that external manpower and support could only make sense if it were being directed to something bigger. Because it just doesn't make sense that hundreds of people are working on the current Sea of Thieves and it's in the state that it's in.
As many know, in 2024, Rare opened a massive new building on the land of their existing studio space in Twycross called "Barn X." And while it was originally intended to support the development of both Sea of Thieves and Everwild, we found out mid last year that Everwild was unfortunately cancelled. So that building could now be used for a larger Sea of Thieves project rather than just the routine seasonal drip-fed content we've been getting.
In October 2024, we saw Phil Spencer visit Rare. Not only to play Everwild, but also to talk about Sea of Thieves and its future. 1 month later, it was announced that Craig Duncan would be promoted to the new head of Xbox Game Studios, and Joe Neate would take Craig's role as studio head. For those who don't know, Phil Spencer oversees all of Xbox Game Studios.
Craig is very respected in the industry, and he has always given his teams the resources they need to succeed. And when Sea of Thieves had its relatively subpar launch in 2018, it was Craig that took responsibility and got in front of the camera and told players what was going wrong and what they were doing to fix it. And even though Joe is the new head of Rare, Craig would be the one responsible for how much resources/funding Rare gets from Xbox Game Studios. I don't think Craig would just allow Sea of Thieves to have a slow death, even when it may seem like that at times.
We've consistently seen Rare reveal Sea of Thieves content during Xbox Game Showcases every June. (Usually around the 8th or 12th)
2021: A Pirate's Life
2022: Captaincy
2023: Monkey Island
2024: Flameheart's Return
2025: The Smugglers League
Based on that pattern, it's only reasonable to expect another announcement that could reveal either Season 20 or 21, a Peter Pan crossover, or a SoT 2. All are completely possible.
Or, and this is less likely, but we could see a Sea of Thieves 2 announcement at The Game Awards. In December 2017, that was when Rare revealed the release date trailer for Sea of Thieves. But like I said, less likely.
On top of all this, there have been multiple in-game development changes to support the idea of a reboot or sequel. Currency resets, combat adjustments, the return of some older cosmetics, FOV increase, Insider Programme refresh, etc. In a very short time, Rare went from "We will never change this, stop asking." to being far more flexible and making bolder moves. And those bolder moves make total sense if you are planning for a future with a rebuilt version of the game.
Also, (and this is a bit of a stretch), we saw in December of 2025, "The Orb Returns" stream, The Widow said "Blade of fire will clash with a grand blade of steel. The unmaking of the world you know. And the end of thieves is coming." She also said when referring to Last Ship Standing "This is but a petty distraction of what is to come." All that, and the upcoming GMU invasion could be the lore reasons for a potential reset of the game. Which I'm totally down for.
If a sequel/reboot does happen, I doubt it will be a literal "Sea of Thieves 2". Instead, I can see a full rebuild and engine upgrade where player progress carries forward (similar to how Counter-Strike 2 replaced CSGO). Maybe also going free to play. That model would allow our pirates, cosmetics, commendations, ships, milestones, and newly reset currency to all migrate over while also giving us a new game entirely.
Call it a conspiracy or copium if you want, but when you line up the restructuring of teams, the 10-year plan/contract, expanding manpower, lore hints, systematic game changes, etc. That possibility of a Sea of Thieves 2 or reboot sounds more and more realistic than it used to.
Everything is pointing towards something massive on the horizon.
