Server hopping needs to be addressed

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@dlchief58 Hypotheses can never be proven, only falsified. They stand until you provide evidence to the contrary .. and being in the top 20 doesn't mean anything. PUGB is in top 10 of steam and it's slowly dying due to competition.

LOL, that is a load of bull and you know it, refusing to admit you are wrong. Hypothesis need to be based on EVIDENCE to begin with. And by your faulty logic I could state any outlandish, unproveable "hypothesis" which would stand because you could not disprove it (such as aliens exist).

You presented absolutely nothing to base your initial theory on, have nothing to prove it, refuse to accept data that refutes your "theory" by wand waving dismissals (aka no proof), and (according to you) no way to prove it yourself...yeah sounds like a rock solid "theory" to me. You'd be laughed out of the scientific community.

@killy1682 @galactic geek @Bugaboo-Bill

There's just one fundamental problem in what you guys are proposing:
All games, SoT being no exception, are made so one can have fun in his freetime.
It can't ever be one's job to stay on a server.
As this is a multiplayer game, everything regarding your fun stands and falls depending from on which server you're playing and what people you meet.
I mean first, how are you going to separate people who left because they got sunk and server hop and those you mentioned that are bored or just blatantly trolling?
Same for PvP arena matches. Also lazybeard/connection issues.
Or you got a bad crew. It wouldn't be fair to force you staying on that server although you clearly have no fun in staying there anymore.

Also what kind of punishment/function would even be fair here to prevent this? I'm pretty sure that a server rejoin cooldown or stealing cash from the account or whatever (I admit I didn't read tis entire wall of text) would even really stop any troll to just wait it out/circumvent it?
Whatever your solution might be, I expect it to only really hurt these people that focus on PvE and switch server for better perspectives and still need to make much gold while trolls/PvPers/streamer douchebags will feel little to no hurt at all from this. Only minor annoyances.

Though I have to say, if I ever happen to really need to start server hopping because I want PvP so badly right now, I'm possibly playing the wrong game.
But well, if people really need to try so hard in this casual over 9000 game, let them be.

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@dlchief58 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@dlchief58 Hypotheses can never be proven, only falsified. They stand until you provide evidence to the contrary .. and being in the top 20 doesn't mean anything. PUGB is in top 10 of steam and it's slowly dying due to competition.

LOL, that is a load of bull and you know it, refusing to admit you are wrong. Hypothesis need to be based on EVIDENCE to begin with. And by your faulty logic I could state any outlandish, unproveable "hypothesis" which would stand because you could not disprove it (such as aliens exist).

You presented absolutely nothing to base your initial theory on, have nothing to prove it, refuse to accept data that refutes your "theory" by wand waving dismissals (aka no proof), and (according to you) no way to prove it yourself...yeah sounds like a rock solid "theory" to me. You'd be laughed out of the scientific community.

I'm a published scientist. Maybe you need to go back to school:

A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it.

a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation.

I think you are either lying or the one who needs to return to school. I (also?) have several published papers myself many years ago (Journal of the American Chemical Society, Journal of Organic Chemistry, and Synthesis for reference and so you know I'm not making this up...you know PROOF). I have a Bachelor's in Chemistry as well as minors in Mathematics and Physics and several years of post graduate work under my belt...so yeah, I know my stuff.

So I have a hypothesis that underwear gnomes are responsible for all the lost laundry from dryers. Oh but I cant prove it, but until you disprove it then it must be true. That is YOUR stated logic there, see how silly that sounds now? And from your own definition posted, you are unable to test any of this so it obviously can't be a scientific hypothesis. That is NOT how science works, and if you we're actually a published one you'd know that - so I call shenanigans.

Anyway my main point stands - you propose this "hypothesis" with NO BASIS of evidence to even form this hypothesis (the part of the definition you conveniently omit, a popular tactic of yours I see) much less further evidence to back up the initial claim (not even anecdotal), and give unrelated data from Steam that has nothing to do with the initial supposition as "proof" while ignoring other information that counters that claim (massive population drop). Furthermore you display a lack of analytical thinking since you are unable to acknowledge the usefulness of trending data and try to hand wave it away with the old "without actual numbers this is meaningless" tripe - a true scientist or a statistician would laugh at you (as I am).

Anyway I'm done dealing with you as you've repeatedly proven yourself to be wrong but too stubborn to admit your mistakes, as it damages your agenda to do so. You know Conspiracy Theory also fits your definition. And that is all your "hypothesis" amounts to as it has no basis to even form that conclusion to begin with and nothing to back it up.

@dlchief58 sagte in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@dlchief58 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

So I have a hypothesis that underwear gnomes are responsible for all the lost laundry from dryers.

@dlCHIEF58 Dude, that one is true. It's 100% confirmed by Southpark. xD

@killy1682

Amazing another steamchart warrior. Look look a game that came out on a platform and is not maintaining all its players.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but nearly any game loses players consistently during the first year usually. The values that you see are nowhere near alarming or out of the ordinary.

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@dlchief58 your evidence and logic are weak. As you somehow astoundingly managed to write up without confusing yourself, your hypothesis is indeed not testable so it is not scientific. However, what I propose is perfectly scientific, and can be tested using internal data that Rare surely owns. I am only approximating it with Steam data, which I formed my hypothesis from, as well as personal experience and stream watching experience. My data is far more accurate at painting a picture than your top 20 chart. For someone with a degree in math, I'm astounded how you think being in a top 20 chart says anything about the time series of the player base for any particular game.

Here's what we would need to know to test my hypothesis:

• Daily active users over time
• How many players are hopping at any time
• How often hopping leads to stolen loot
• Do player interactions between hoppers lead to victims quitting at a higher rate than baseline?

You saying so doesn't make it true, anymore than your hand waving dismisses the points I made. Sorry my superior intellect confused you.

To begin with one I stated the TRENDING on that chart OVER TIME gives useful information, no single data point will give any useful data (any statistician worth their salt would know that). And it is more useful than the weak Steam data you keep spouting which proves absolutely nothing, much less give you a basis to form this "hypothesis". And lets be honest, it is just a opinion that you cannot prove (yet hoping that Rare can prove it for you). Your "data" proves nothing, shows no trends that back up your claim much less provide ANYTHING to indicate that server hoppers lead to more aggressive servers. Furthermore the data set you are depending upon is likely the smallest one of the bunch being as the game has only been on that platform for a few months and has no "free" to play option (Game Pass).

What I provided can be analyzed and useful information regarding the game's health can be determined simply by tracking the position over time and comparing it to the titles placed around it....and only the most popular games at the moment are above Sea of Thieves such as GTA V, Fortnite, Minecraft, Call of Duty, etc. This can be further analyzed by the appearance of newly released games, new GwG, and other special events in games that boost player numbers on these titles. While you cannot get an exact number of users, you get a very good idea of the game's popularity and how it rates with other popular games on the system. But as someone else pointed out, we can back this up with Emissary estimates to get an idea of a bare minimum of players in a given month - combine the two we get a lot better indication of the games health population wise than your small sample set of data that lacks correlation.

Thing is, you do not have the data thus cannot prove anything you say. You cannot "approximate" anything from that as you have no correlation to your cause and effect, Steam population data gives you no insight into the reasons why a person might quit (you assume this without basis). This is as bad as the people trying to use a single Achievement completion percentage to make some point (that in itself would be incorrect due to the skewing that occurred right after launch when they were disabled) - tracking that data over time might yield useful information but a single data point tells you nothing. You cannot even come up with a genuine basis for forming this "hypothesis" to begin with - picking up Steam player counts and watching streamers (an extremely small cross section of the community) is hardly scientific and does not paint any "picture" that would lead one to come to such a conclusion. Since you cannot prove it (thus in essence making it unprovable) it is about as valid as my underwear gnome analogy. You hoping someone with the data will hold up your theory is poor logic and science.

Finally your proposed analysis leaves a lot to be desired, and I doubt any useful information can be gleaned from it. You cannot look at just these pure numbers and draw a meaningful conclusion without context. You cannot make a direct correlation between the two without context, something required when dealing with human interactions. I really could tear into this further but to be honest I'm tiring of your ignorance and frankly have much better things to do than argue with someone as stubborn as you.

As it is you have a theory opinion you THINK is true but have no way to prove it (much less any data to effectively support that conclusion to begin with) and are continuing to insist it is true because someone is likewise unable to disprove it completely, but holding on to that because Rare might have data that would back up your claim - that is not how science or logic works.

@killy1682

You claim that stats like the MAU is what you want to base your concerns on.

Yet make claims that retention is not achieved with monthly updates, as it pulls people back into the game each month for a period of time. Which will in fact increase the MAU significantly as each months these players return to the game to play it and therefore retaining them.

The charts where people logging in, raising a flag and selling loot is not valid enough to be considered as active players, as they only do the minimum amount. Yet once again they would increase the MAU you kept bringing up.

You make claims that PVE players are a dying breed, with no real evidence. The reason people leave or play less actively is not easy to figure out at all. There enough PvPers that get bored and move on as well, how did you conclude that it is the PvE crowd that is leaving?

You claim that the reason for the drop off is based on server hoppers, with no real evidence. Frankly server hopping might increase the amount of people that keep playing as they have an easier time of doing their activity of choice.

You are looking at a very generic drop off in the steam charts and retention policy. Have you taken the chance to compare it to other games?

SoT compared to Rust

Take this, put it to a month and other than the total amount of players you see pretty much the same flow.

The data you keep showcasing and putting so much value in is really not that disturbing at all. It is pretty much as expected to be honest for a game that is doing just fine. Btw. I picked Rust as it has monthly update cycles, is a PvPvE game and one of the inspirations of the seas. Take into account that steam charts don't include the full player base of the seas, as it is multi platform and all in all it seems to be going nice and steady.

Like if you want to have a conversation about server hopping that is all fine and dandy, but this stat cherry picking to suit your narrative is a little cringe worthy. The game is doing just fine, but it doesn't mean the game is perfect or cannot be improved.

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@cotu42 I don't really see how SoT and Rust are at all the same? Look at peak-to-peak variation across your time period, and in particular zoom out to the 3M period https://steamcharts.com/cmp/1172620,252490#3m. Steamcharts tracked SoT across at least one update, Ashen Winds, whose release didn't really do anything.

Look at a larger scale man, game came out. People buy it has a large drop off like in any other game and flattens out. Take on top of that the fact that the game is offered on multiple platforms and the values are really not that bad at all.

The fact that you don't think that one of the games that inspired the creation of the sea of thieves has nothing in common with the game just shows how little you understand about the type of game you are playing.

You're correct that I used the wrong metric in MAU. What I am looking at is some rolling 7-day or 14-day average of active users, which I observe to be declining.

Here we go with the cherry picking of information and adjusting of the posts when someone points out the flaws in your analysis. Go have a broader look at steam charts across many games, especially those in the survival, open world, PvEvP environments and compare them to the ones of Sea of Thieves. What you are seeing is really nothing alarming or even out of the ordinary.

Yet again none of this any indication that it is due server hopping.

I think it's rather easy to figure out why people stop playing SoT. At its core it disproportionately punishes PvErs. I've seen many arguments that time spent server hopping and fishing for fat loot is the same as the time that PvErs spend gathering loot, which couldn't be farther from the truth. PvErs spend time to create a stack of loot, just like you would spend time in the kitchen creating a meal. Burning the bread or having your ship sunk and loot stolen is not at all equivalent to foraging for PvE players, which is akin to browsing the internet.

Once again you are failing to understand the concept as many before you.

The inspiration

The idea of freedom to be the pirate you want to be, be it a hunter, a gatherer or a mix.

I have been on both ends of the equation and I am a hoarder, yet when I come across someone that beats me before I sold my goodies I don't look at them and blame them for being meanies. They also didn't get my loot for free, they fought for it, sailed for it and had to best me for it. Not the equivalent of burning your meal you say? I would disagree just as ruining your meal by messing up, being caught and bested on the seas usually comes from a simple mistake you yourself made. Are other people involved yes naturally, but that is the point of the game and losing at times isn't a bad thing.

If you believe hunting pirates is so easy, as browsing the internet and I am talking about those with loot. Be my guest and try it out some time... it sounds to me a lot like you are trying to talk about an activity that you never even tried yourself.

You are all about data, but have you gone out to test it for yourself?

I personally see, but cannot definitively prove, that streamers and their followers treat these players as ripe fruits to be plucked. In particular they have dedicated minions hopping around servers to find things for them to attack. I watched Beardaggedon leave an alliance server to ripen and go off to tuck multiple FotD in a row, "let's go steal some Athena stuff while we wait for this alliance server". They literally have a never ending list of targets supplied by others.

Aah but does this have anything to do with server hopping? Sure the streamer hops, but in reality it is a community effort and any effort to thwart this is not going to really change anything.

They have people playing the game, going out on the seas and when they find something interesting they have their streamer buddy hop in for the content.

I have also seen streamers get into something interesting and one of their crew members left to invite another streamer friend of theirs into the party, as this was golden content.

Compared to other popular PvP games who have generally slowly increased player count since inception, that makes me believe that while SoT's game model is amazing and unique, it's almost designed to slowly kill off the casual player base. I assert that server hopping exacerbates this problem because it means casual players, who have yet to convert into long term seasoned players, have a higher chance of being exposed to people who in this thread admit to hopping to find action.

Aah yet again a misconception on the game, it is not a pure PvP game. This is a PvEvP open world game. Is it unique to an extent, but more in the fact of the horizontal progression than the open world player content driven aspect. Most games in the genre are brutal, your ability to play along and at equal footing tends to rely on your skill to snowball or avoid others. This is what makes Sea of Thieves unique: you get all the good aspects of a shared open world game without the devastating consequences. Each session you are given a fresh start and are always at an equal opportunity for success.

Pretty much all games have a launch, then a steady decline for multiple months and that flattens. That becomes the base line and over time it can increase again or fizzle out over a course of years. The only games that take off after launch are those that gets ton of hype. Usually they will also crash and still decline shortly after - the exceptions are few and far between. The more people that play your game, the more people that will keep doing so to some degree or that might return.

New players have a higher chance to meet other players on the seas, because they are not paying attention most of the time. Whether they are hoppers or not is really irrelevant. I rarely hop and still mainly do world events, contest anyone I see and there is no way for you to establish whether I hop from the other end. If people are unwilling to learn the game that is driven on player created content, then they will keep having bad experiences and will quit.

Servers will always be filled up with people that start playing, whether it is their first session of the evening or 10th the spot will be filled. You cannot stop people from leaving and joining servers, I rather have people fill up the server than be hit by more merges.

People hop to create alliance servers, to avoid a specific server they were on which had a strong PvP crew roaming the seas, because they want to do specific events and because they pretty much killed everyone on the server, now they want new action instead of hunting the same crews over and over and over again?

Hopping might have its issues, but it also has its positives. I am not against it or a big pro activist of it.

You are trying to link a very natural development of a playerbase to a specific type of behavior. While basing it off of streamers, that are just a handful of players and are accomplishing their feats with social networks, not just hopping servers.

Go hop servers for an evening and try to hunt down others, then come back and tell us how easy it is to find these PvE whales...

@killy1682

pve players an endagered breed?

"aahhh here you see a pve player in its natural habitat" -david attenborough

@killy1682

Nothing in the stats can be linked to server hopping, as multiple people have already pointed out.

This is not a PvP game, but a PvPvE one. Maybe look at stats in the appropriate genre instead of another one?

Streamers don't all rely on hopping just like the player base and the ones that use their network won't really be affected by restrictions.

You ignored most of my post, you are more interested in how the stats can be molded to suit your narrative, adapt the time frames, the metrics you want to use once someone points that disproves your arguments than the discussion about server hopping. I don't think I have any more to add to the conversation

@killy1682 said in Server hopping needs to be addressed:

@dlchief58 I'll simplify it into a yes or no question that even you can understand. Do you have a time series of daily active users? If you do not, can you INFER such a series from that opaquely updated top 20 chart? The answer is no to both. You can't even provide me a list of numbers of how Sea of Thieves moves in the top 20 chart over a period of time. That's how little data you have. You also have zero idea of the distribution of players within the top 20. It could be linear, it could be heavily skewed, it could be uniform. You literally have no idea.

Let's not forget that the monthly content updates have minimal impact on player retention, holding interest for about a week (plot the steamcharts data around July 29).

Players who log on and turn in some emissary loot (which is multiplied before put in the ledger) are not necessarily active. A Captain's Chest is base 2400 value before any Emissary multiplier. One session is enough to be listed in the bottom 25%. Daily active players are probably best tracked by the top 25% percentile, and that's already generous. With one grade 5 emissary session, I can ascend to the top 25% percentile and hardly do anything for the rest of the month. I'm willing to wager that only the top half of the top 25% percentile are truly active players.

I'm not going to respond to the majority of your hokum as you cannot and will not accept that your are mistaken on MANY (if not all) points...not a characteristic of a true scientist (like you laughingly claim to be). You seem to forget I did say that I could reference this trending on the top 20 weekly leaderboard with NEARLY 2 YEARS worth of data. And in that time the game has peaked at the #11 spot (right after the Anniversary update) and the vast majority of the time being in the top 25 (and more of that spent in the top 20, but I am being generous here), slipping below that less than a handful of times (literally). And nearly every game above it holds those spots regularly, are big hitters with large amounts of players (Fortnite, CoD, Minecraft, R6 Siege, etc) or new releases/recent Game Pass additions which the correlation is clear. If I thought it worth the time to shut you up once and for all I'd put it in a spreadsheet with averages, means and statistical deviation - but you are too bull headed to accept the truth of the matter so what is the point. You are not worth the time.

Depending upon ONE source of data as you are (being the newest one and likely the least populated one due to it being the newest) is very poor data analysis - and you can't even analyze that properly (ignoring established trends of games that peak right after launch to flatten out over time, and failing to acknowledge that THIS game actually bucked that trend for several weeks by continuing to GROW on the same charts you reference). You formed your conclusion before looking at the data, ignore any data that refutes your points, and make unrelated correlations with no evidence to back it up (PvP server hoppers leading to player loss, specifically PvE centric players....LOL!).

I could go on about your other false narratives (such as PvP games continuously increasing player counts since inception, that in itself is very, very rare) but as I said you are not worth it due to your stubbornness and arrogance. The game has a healthy, consistent population (as has been shown though you refuse to accept the facts) and a few server hopping streamers (there are not that many of them out there, so this is not the huge issue you make it to be...thus making your whole supposition moot and laughable) are not going to decimate the player ranks. Good Day!